With the crypto market emerging from its doldrums, you may be asking yourself how long your altcoins will take to return to their previous highs (or, at least, the price you paid).
Fortunately, I know the answer.
Probably never.
Lightning in a bottle
Pull up CoinMarketCap and look at each cryptocurrency in the top 100.
For each token listed, you can see its all-time high price.
Most reached their pinnacles in 2021 or the very beginning of 2018.
A handful reached their peaks earlier this year, but only because they were so new that they didn’t exist in 2021 or 2018.
Those are the biggest, supposedly most successful cryptocurrencies. We’re not even including the (many) ones that peaked in 2013 or early 2018, then fell off the top 100 list.
Look at their charts and find the ones that went back to their all-time highs. You won’t find many.
Is your altcoin the lucky one that bucks the trend?
Uphill battle
Of the top 100 altcoins in November 2022, at the depths of the previous bear market, how many remain in the top 100?
Only half.
I know, because I reviewed them in a special report on which ones will survive through the bull market.
Since then, Bitcoin’s price has quadrupled while most altcoins haven’t even doubled. Many remain 90% lower than their previous all-time high prices.
Take a look at the total crypto market cap minus Bitcoin:
While Bitcoin’s price breached its 2021 high and remains within a breath of tapping it again, the rest of the market is down almost 50% and never came close to recovering its 2021 high.
If you’re hoping your favorite altcoin will return to its former glory, you may want to temper your expectations.
Skewed perspective
Fortunately, crypto goes through bouts of speculative mania now and then.
Some call this “altseason,” but it can happen anytime.
During these rare, brief times, prices go crazy. Insane. Beyond comprehension or sanity. Like this:
They don’t come often and don’t last long. What’s the party stops, everything falls apart.
During those brief periods, you get 500-1,000% zooms on many altcoins.
Outside of those brief periods, it’s hit or miss. (Mostly, miss.)
You probably bought during those bouts of speculative mania — after the 500–1,000% gains, or maybe in March and April this year.
Your altcoin isn’t suffering because it’s bad or useless, but because its price never should’ve gone that high in the first place. Hence, the letdown.
On the brightside
For any project that’s worthwhile, you still have tremendous opportunity.
100x?
Maybe, maybe not. I offer a few great projects in my altcoin reports.
20% of those altcoins will do amazing things. More than enough to make up for the 80% that don’t.
If you look down at your portfolio and see a bunch of altcoins down 90% from their peaks, don’t despair. More than likely, the problem isn’t the token — it’s your timing.
For example, today, many altcoins are down 50 to 80% from their prices just a few months ago—and those prices were already down 50 to 80% from their all-time highs!
You get to buy them at a massive discount.
You may feel like you’re throwing money into the wilderness. To some extent, you are. But you also did that earlier this year at much higher prices.
At least now, you don’t have to bank on new all-time highs to get a nice return on your investment.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed.
