Bitcoin options linked to the upcoming U.S. elections are creating significant buzz in the cryptocurrency market, with traders locking in nearly $350 million in open interest. This surge in activity reflects a growing interest in how political events may influence the digital asset landscape, as investors speculate on potential market movements surrounding the elections.
Record Open Interest Ahead of Elections
As of August 20, 2024, the notional open interest in Bitcoin options related to the U.S. elections stands at approximately $345.83 million, according to Amberdata. These options, referred to as “election expiry options,” are set to expire four days after the elections on November 4, 2024. Trading for these options began on Deribit about a month ago, indicating that traders are proactively positioning themselves to capitalize on expected market volatility.
Bullish Sentiment Dominates
The distribution of open interest demonstrates a predominantly bullish sentiment among traders. Call options, which allow investors to benefit from price increases, account for 67% of the total open interest, resulting in a put-call ratio of less than 0.50. This indicates that there are significantly more call options than put options, reflecting optimism regarding the election outcomes. The most popular call option is priced at a strike of $80,000, boasting an open interest of over $39 million. Furthermore, open interest is heavily concentrated in higher strike call options, ranging from $70,000 to $140,000, suggesting that traders are positioning for potential new record highs in Bitcoin prices as the election date approaches.
According to Wintermute, an algorithmic trading firm, these election-focused contracts allow investors to leverage heightened interest by speculating on how the elections might affect cryptocurrency markets. The current put-call ratio of 0.50 indicates a bullish outlook, with twice as many calls traded as puts. Additionally, there is $39 million locked in a put option at a strike price of $45,000, which provides some downside protection. This clustering of open interest in call options at higher strike prices indicates that market participants are betting on upward movement in Bitcoin, while the presence of lower strike puts suggests a degree of hedging against potential price declines.
Implications for the Cryptocurrency Market
The substantial open interest in Bitcoin options tied to the elections signals that traders are not only looking to hedge against potential downturns but also aiming to profit from expected price volatility. This trend could lead to increased liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, with significant price fluctuations anticipated as election day nears.
